When looking at the business from a wide angle, it’s not too hard to see why financial technology firm OppFi (OPFI) — which specializes in providing everyday consumers with access to credit — has enjoyed blistering success. Over the past one-year period, OPFI stock has gained nearly 337% of equity value. So, unless there is strong evidence to the contrary, OPFI’s current red ink may just be a healthy corrective cycle.

In many ways, the results speak for themselves. In fiscal year 2023, OppFi generated total revenue of $508.9 million, representing a 12.4% lift from the prior year. Also, the company is consistently profitable, with fiscal 2023 being its ninth consecutive year of net income (totaling $39.5 million at the time).

Wall Street analysts also rate OPFI stock as a Strong Buy. In fairness, there’s only two experts covering the business so we’re definitely talking about extremely small numbers here. Nevertheless, that these two voices speak glowingly about the enterprise is a definite confidence booster.

Fundamentally, OppFi has pleasantly raised eyebrows for its efficient loan processing. Its digital platform processes over 10 million data points monthly, enabling rapid loan approvals with an average processing time of 24 minutes. Further, the fintech is strategically well positioned, broadening credit access for marginalized Americans.

With so much attention focused on social equity — the current political administration aside — OPFI stock is essentially geared for long-term success. So, the million-dollar question: why did the security drop so sharply on Monday?

Investors are likely reevaluating the value proposition. With the company’s fourth-quarter earnings report likely to be released early next month, several investors decided to take some profits off the table. While the overall picture is solid, some stats may be worrying stakeholders. For example, full-year 2024 revenue is projected to hit $523.76 million. If so, that would only be less than 3% up from the prior year.

While the price-to-sales ratio of 0.64X might seem low, it’s actually quite high compared to the recent past. Still, shareholders shouldn’t panic as the smart money appears to be optimistic.

Monday’s Unusual Options Activity Had a Twist for OPFI Stock

When the closing bell rang out on Monday, OPFI stock represented one of the highlights in Barchart’s unusual stock options volume screener. In the open market, shares had lost nearly 9%. However, activity for its derivatives soared.

Specifically, total options volume hit 10,423 contracts against an open interest reading of 40,909 contracts. The difference between yesterday’s volume and the trailing one-month average metric stood at 158.12%. Call volume reached 6,607 contracts while put volume was 3,816. This pairing yielded a put/call volume ratio of 0.58.

At face value, the above ratio seems bullish — a sub-1 figure suggests more traders are transacting call options than puts. To better gauge sentiment, I prefer looking at options flow, which filters for only the biggest transactions (meaning that they’re likely placed by institutional investors). Sure enough, net trade sentiment was $94,700, favoring the bulls.

To be fair, the pendulum wasn’t overwhelmingly optimistic. In terms of gross dollar volume, bearish trades constituted $339,700, whereas bullish trades reached $434,400. Nevertheless, the data indicates considerable interest in debit (bought) calls, particularly with a Nov. 21, 2025 expiration date. So, the smart money not only may be bullish but are (at least for now) exposed to the upside narrative for several months.

Now, that doesn’t necessarily mean investors should back up the truck. Just in the past month alone, OPFI stock gained just under 66%. There’s a lot of optimism still baked into the market value that could potentially be at risk of further correction. For example, Monday’s afterhours session was choppy and negatively tilted.

However, when the dust clears, OppFi could be an intriguing discount.

Two Approaches Available for OppFi

In terms of how to approach OppFi stock, there are two schools of thought. First, one could play the patient game, letting all the ugliness in OPFI work its way out of the system before initiating a long position in the open market.

Second, there is the options trading approach — but which I’m not a big fan of.

Since its market debut, OPFI stock has enjoyed an upward bias from a stochastic (temporal) view. A position entered at the beginning of the week has a 53.24% chance of rising by the end of it. Over a four-week period, the long odds dip slightly to 51.42%.

Interestingly, at this moment, OPFI stock is on pace to lose around 11% of value. This metric could change significantly, to be upfront. However, during times when OPFI has lost 10% or more in a one-week period, the subsequent week’s long odds rise to 56.52%. Over a four-week period, the long odds are decent at 54.55%.

While that sounds somewhat enticing, the median return — whether viewed stochastically or dynamically (i.e. accounting for the market’s response to extreme losses) — over a four-week period is no greater than 11.4%. Using Monday’s closing price as the anchor, the highest realistic target would be around $17.18.

Unfortunately, the calls are priced at $2.50 intervals, meaning that call spreads with a $17.50 short leg for the Feb. 21 options chain are simply too aggressive. Instead, OPFI has the makings of a longer-term buy-and-hold speculative investment.